This lockdown does not seem to be adhered to as strictly. How do we address this? Stephen Reicher - Data from You Gov says that • 80% of people are following the rules. And that • 80% of people think that everyone else aren’t following the rules This is due to the ‘availability effect’ – how easily it comes to mind. We notice people breaking the rules, but we don’t notice the people staying at home. The media only report people making violations. We need mundane stories of heroic compliance. We overestimate stories of non compliance. Rules could be too flexible – different rules and regulations mean different messages. For example in England you can go in and out of each others houses. Paul Cairney - The challenges for Government are: • It doesn’t really know what people are doing • And it doesn’t know what the effects of their incentivisation’s are Who do we hold responsible? People in the UK tend to blame central Government. We should be widening these discussions to include the wider group, not just Government (as being held responsible) Abigail Colson - In modelling there are pit falls in using data. There is compliance fatigue/ adherence. Data changes all the time so how do you decide what data to use. Is the modelling helping and how do we interpret it. Modellers are being asked to do definitive things but we need to understand the boundaries of the model.
Thinking about it a little more after the discussion and I'm not entirely convinced by Stephen's evidence (though not necessarily saying I disagree with him). YouGov is entirely self-reported data meaning you have to take any results with a grain of salt. In addition there may not be much overlap between the type of people that tend to go online and fill in surveys vs. the type of people that tend of have low 'compliance', which could skew your data.
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